Australia's electricity grid wasn't built for electric vehicles. That's not a criticism. It was built for a world where homes drew 3-7 kW at peak, and commercial sites had predictable load profiles. EV charging changes both assumptions, and the regulatory response is now catching up.
The Capacity Mismatch
Distribution networks in Australia were designed with specific assumptions about peak demand per connection. Depending on state and territory, residential design values range from 3-7 kW per house. A standard Level 2 home charger draws around 7 kW. One charger can match or exceed the entire design allowance for the property.
Scale this up and the numbers get stark. AEMO forecasts 10 million EVs on Australian roads by 2050. At an average residential charge of 5 kW, that's up to 50 GW of potential demand. Current peak capacity on the hottest summer days is around 36 GW. The grid needs to grow, or charging needs to get smarter. Realistically, both.
Uncontrolled charging: Grid supports 5-10% EV penetration
Time-of-use charging: Grid supports up to 40% EV penetration
Smart/controlled charging: Grid supports 60-70% EV penetration
Source: IET Smart Grid review of Australian distribution network studies
The 2025 Regulatory Shift
Australia's response is taking shape through mandatory demand-response capability. From 2025, any EV charger drawing more than 20A single-phase (or 40A three-phase) must support AS 4755 demand response. At minimum, DRM0 (disconnect on command) is required. DRM1-3 (load limiting modes) are optional but increasingly expected.
This matters because it gives networks a lever they didn't have before. When the grid is under stress, distribution network service providers (DNSPs) can signal chargers to reduce or pause. The alternative was infrastructure upgrades at enormous cost, or accepting that some parts of the network would hit limits.
NSW (Ausgrid/Endeavour/Essential): >10 kVA single-phase, >20 kVA three-phase
Victoria (all DNSPs): >12 kVA single-phase, >30 kVA three-phase
Queensland (Energex/Ergon): >10 kW single-phase, >30 kW three-phase
South Australia: >10 kW single-phase
Western Australia: >5 kW (unchanged)
Commercial Sites Face Different Maths
For commercial buildings, the challenge is demand tariffs. Unlike residential flat rates, commercial customers pay for their peak kW draw in any interval during the billing period. Add EV charging to a site without managing when it runs, and you can spike the monthly demand charge with a single bad 15-minute window.
This is where the regulatory push toward demand response aligns with commercial self-interest. A fuel station or shopping centre adding DC fast chargers needs to manage those chargers against existing site load anyway, or face punishing demand charges. The AS 4755 requirement just formalises what smart operators were already doing.
The Constraint Maths
AEMO modelling suggests that by 2040, active management of EV charging could prevent around 75% of constraints at zone substations. That's the difference between billions in network upgrades and a software problem. The catch is that "active management" requires visibility and control that most sites don't have yet.
For a typical fuel retail site with 200 kW of grid connection, 150 kW of existing load at peak, and ambitions to add 150 kW of DC fast charging, the maths doesn't work without coordination. But if that site has 50-80 kW of flexible load in HVAC and refrigeration, suddenly the conversation changes. The grid connection that seemed inadequate becomes workable when loads are orchestrated rather than coincident.
What V2G Changes
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) standards are expected to finalise in mid-2026. When EVs can export power back to buildings or the grid, they become assets rather than just loads. A fleet depot with 50 vehicles becomes a potential 200+ kW battery when those vehicles are parked and plugged in.
This changes demand flexibility calculations significantly. A site that can draw on vehicle batteries during peak periods has options that pure load-shifting doesn't offer. The orchestration layer that manages charging becomes the same layer that manages discharge, and the commercial case for getting this right gets stronger.
The Opportunity Window
EV sales in Australia grew over 120% in 2024 and continue climbing. The charging infrastructure is scaling rapidly. But the grid flexibility to support this is still being built out, both in regulation and in deployed capability.
For commercial site operators, this is the window to get ahead. Sites that build demand flexibility capability now will handle EV charging growth without hitting grid constraints or demand charge spikes. Sites that wait will find themselves in upgrade queues or paying premium tariffs for peak demand they could have avoided.
The grid wasn't built for EVs. But it doesn't need to be rebuilt from scratch. It needs sites that can flex, and the intelligence to coordinate when they do.